Friday, November 30, 2012

Fake Confidence is better than No Confidence


Has it ever occurred to you that in any sort of game, if you start out with the mindset that you will lose you ultimately end up losing? For instance, if you're playing scrabble against someone who you know typically wins and you tell yourself 'ugh I'm probably going to lose,' usually you do end up losing. In a sense, this contradicts the Dunning-Kruger effect that we discussed in lecture. Dunning and Kruger might argue that the person who is overly confident in their scrabble abilities will eventually end up losing. I agree, that at times having too much confidence could be a bad thing. The bias argues that those who exude confidence overestimate their abilities, which can result in them never performing as well as those who underestimate their skills. Those who underestimate their skills will work harder to improve those skills and therefore outperform the people who are very confident; however, in the field of games, exuding confidence is an advantage. 
It is believed that in sports the star point guards, quarterbacks, and top ranked tennis players all must have outstanding confidence. How else could they rise to the top and be swept up by recruiters to play for some of the best teams in the country? However, according to the Dunning-Kruger bias, the player on the team with the most confidence is not necessarily the most talented. Actually it states the complete opposite. It supports the premise that those who believe they are very smart, and have undoubted confidence in their abilities are not as talented or bright as they believe. It is those who question their abilities who have the superior talent.  Or as Socrates would put it: "The only true wisdom is to know that you know nothing." In regards to games I don’t believe the Dunning-Kruger affect applies.
One summer I went to Bollettieri Tennis Academy in southern Florida where I stayed for about three weeks to improve my tennis ability but also my sports mentality. I was physically and mentally coached to become a better tennis player. My tennis ability was always changing; just like any other athlete I often had really good days and then some really awful ones where I’d question why I even tried to play tennis. I was always told I had the skills but lacked the confidence. During my ‘mental training’ sessions at the Tennis Academy I was told that I had to imagine myself winning the match in order to instill confidence, or in a sense trick my brain to believe that I could most definitely play like the girl I pictured. If I even uttered the words ‘I can’t,’ ‘I wish I could do this better,’ or ‘why isn’t my backhand as consistent as her’s’ I would be scolded. I was told that saying those phrases were the reason I was losing or couldn’t play as well as someone else. During a match if I kept hitting the ball into the net I couldn’t say ‘stop hitting it into the net’ because that would imply I had no confidence in my groundstrokes. Instead, I was told to say ‘aim higher’ or ‘swing up on the ball,’ which were supposed to instill confidence and to believe that I could perform as well as I wanted. One may think these small acts wouldn’t have any affect on one’s performance ability; however, instead of not saying negative comments, thinking confidently allowed me to excel.

Now I could be completely wrong in that putting on a false sense of confidence could not have an actual effect on everyone, but in my experience changing my mentality from critical to confident can allow me to play like the tennis player I think of when I close my eyes and prepare for a match. I think that believing in one’s abilities in athletics can make a tremendous difference. I think that the soccer players who lack confidence when they walk onto a soccer field don’t perform well. And even though the Dunning-Kruger theory states that people who critique themselves harshly are really the smart and talented ones, when I brush off my mistakes and tell myself I’m the best tennis player than I perform to the best of my ability. The more confidence a person has while playing a game, the better he will perform. 

Socrates quote: http://www.spring.org.uk/2012/06/the-dunning-kruger-effect-why-the-incompetent-dont-know-theyre-incompetent.php
Image1: http://vlsportysexycool.com/2012/02/25/kobe-bryants-short-list-of-nba-greats-and-where-he-ranks/
Image2: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/othersports/article-1105803/ALEX-KAY-TALKS-TENNIS-Nick-Bollettieri-Murray-Federer-Williams-sisters-Laura-Robson-decline-US-game.html
Image 3:http://grassrootsmotorsports.com/forum/off-topic-discussion/the-football-season-just-started/54557/page2/


3 comments:

  1. Olivia, I think this is an interesting post for a few reasons. First, I'm glad to see a post about the Dunning-Kruger effect since we didn't spend a whole lot of time on it in class. You point out an important contradiction between performance in games and the theory put forth by Dunning and Kruger, saying that contrary to theory, having confidence in a game actually improves one's outcomes. I have to disagree with your premise though - I think the Dunning-Kruger effect is meant to be applied generally, to people living their day-to-day lives. I think that it holds true most of the time in that context. But I'm not sure that it applies in-game. As a cross country runner in middle and high school, I found that mental strength was as (if not more) important than physical fitness, and confidence at the starting line translated to a good time. But being overconfident in practices would lead to sloth and weakness. So while I see your point, I think that the Dunning-Kruger effect should be applied to the general and common-sense confidence=victory formula is more appropriate in-game.

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  3. Olivia, I agree that overconfidence is a necessity in the high-pressure world of professional sports. Star players have the weight of living up to the multi-million dollar contracts they sign and the weight of a whole city's expectations on their shoulders. LeBron James had this problem for most of his career. The most talented player on the planet, LeBron has the best all-around game since Magic with the body of Karl Malone and Michael Jordan's scoring/jumping ability. With the talent to make basketball look like a video game, LeBron was pegged as the "Chosen One" since the 11th grade and many expected him to become the next Jordan. For the first seven years of his career, LeBron played for his home state's Cleveland Cavaliers and took them deep into the playoffs but could never secure a championship. In big moments, LeBron would freeze and pass up game-winning shots for questionable plays. Unable to shoulder the burden alone, LeBron moved to Miami to team up with his best friends Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh, superstars of their own to form the best team since the Kobe-Shaq Lakers. It wasn't until this past 2011-12 season that LeBron finally conquered his own demons and gained the confidence to secure a title.

    But I agree with Conner that overconfidence is detrimental in most everyday situations. In addition, overconfidence isn't even useful in every high-pressure situation. When an untrained person is at gunpoint, there is no reason to believe that one can overcome a potential shooting by fighting one's way through it. In the case of a Category 3 hurricane like Katrina, it is probably better to evacuate than "ride my way through it" as some New Orleans residents did to their own demise. In the case of war, a large and accomplished invading army should not underestimate the strength of guerrillas in the state to be invaded, as shown in the American Revolution. Overconfidence is required in sports to succeed, but it has grave consequences in real-life situations.

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